How NBA Teams Actually Evaluate Shooter Performance

I used to think field goal percentage told you everything about a shooter. Then I watched more basketball and realized something was off.

A player shooting 45% looked average on paper. But they were taking mostly threes. Another guy shot 50% but only dunked and made layups. Who’s the better shooter?

NBA teams figured this out years ago. They don’t just look at basic shooting percentages anymore. They dig deeper into the numbers that matter.

Let me show you how they really evaluate shooters.

Why Traditional Stats Don’t Work Anymore

Field goal percentage has a major flaw. It treats all shots the same.

A three-pointer is worth 50% more than a two-pointer. But traditional FG% doesn’t account for that. A player making 40% of their threes scores more efficiently than someone hitting 50% of their twos.

The math is simple. Make 40% of your threes? You score 1.2 points per shot. Make 50% of your twos? You score 1.0 points per shot.

NBA teams care about points per possession. Not arbitrary percentages that ignore shot value.

The Metric Teams Actually Use

Enter effective field goal percentage, or eFG%. This stat weighs three-pointers properly.

The formula adjusts for the extra point you get from threes. It gives you a true picture of shooting efficiency.

A player shooting 40% from three has an eFG% of 60%. That’s elite. Because those threes are worth more.

Teams use this to compare players fairly. You can’t just look at raw FG% anymore. It’s misleading.

Want to calculate this yourself? Tools like the Effective Field Goal Percentage Calculator make it instant. Plug in the numbers and see the real efficiency.

What NBA Scouts Look For

When teams evaluate shooters, they break down several factors.

Shot selection matters. A guy taking contested midrange shots all game? Red flag. Even if he makes them at a decent rate.

Teams want players who understand shot value. Take open threes. Attack the rim. Avoid long twos unless you’re elite.

Volume counts too. Making 50% of your threes on one attempt per game doesn’t impress anyone. Can you maintain that on six attempts? Eight attempts?

High-volume shooters who stay efficient are gold. That’s Steph Curry territory.

Shot difficulty is huge. Some players create their own shots. Others only shoot when wide open. Teams track this closely.

Creating your own shot off the dribble is harder. If you can do it efficiently, you’re valuable.

Breaking Down Shooting Zones

NBA teams map the court into zones. They track efficiency in each area.

Corner threes are the most efficient shot in basketball. Short distance. High percentage. Teams hunt these constantly.

Above-the-break threes are tougher. Longer distance. But still worth more than twos.

The paint is valuable. Close to the basket means high percentage. Layups and dunks are money.

The midrange? Teams avoid it. Unless you’re Kevin Durant or DeMar DeRozan, it’s not efficient. Too far to be a high-percentage shot. Not far enough to be worth three points.

How Teams Use Video Analysis

Numbers don’t tell the whole story. Teams watch film obsessively.

They track shooting form. Footwork. Release speed. Follow-through. Consistent mechanics lead to consistent results.

Shot preparation matters. Do you catch ready to shoot? Or do you need extra dribbles to get comfortable?

Defenders study this too. If you always need two dribbles before shooting, they’ll crowd you.

Teams also watch how players move without the ball. Can you relocate after a pass? Do you find open spots? Great shooters are always moving.

The Spacing Factor

Shooters create space for everyone else. Even if they’re not scoring.

Defenders have to guard shooters closely. That opens driving lanes. It creates easier shots for teammates.

A 38% three-point shooter who takes five attempts per game? Teams guard them tight at the arc. That’s valuable even on nights when shots aren’t falling.

Non-shooters get sagged off. Defenders play five feet back. That clogs the paint and kills team offense.

Context Behind the Numbers

Raw stats need context. Teams dig into the details.

Who’s guarding you? Shooting 45% against bench players is different than 45% against starters.

What’s the game situation? Garbage time stats get filtered out. Teams want production when games are close.

Home vs. road splits matter. Some players shoot way better at home. Crowds affect shooters differently.

Fatigue is real. Back-to-back games? Fourth quarter of a playoff series? Efficiency often drops.

Teams track all of this. They want the full picture.

Shot Quality vs. Shot Making

There’s a difference between getting good looks and making tough shots.

Good shot quality means open looks. Proper spacing. Rhythm shots off good passes.

Shot making is hitting difficult attempts. Contested jumpers. Deep threes. Shots off balance.

Teams prefer players who generate good shot quality. It’s more sustainable. Shot makers have their place, but consistency matters more.

Analytics help teams identify which players are lucky versus skilled. A guy hitting tough shots all year? Probably not sustainable. His efficiency will drop.

Someone getting great looks and converting them? That’s reliable.

Free Throw Shooting Tells You Something

NBA teams pay close attention to free throw percentages.

Why? It’s the purest shooting test. No defense. Same spot every time. Just you and the basket.

A poor free throw shooter rarely becomes a great three-point shooter. The mechanics aren’t there.

Good free throw shooters can often extend their range with practice. The foundation exists.

Teams use FT% to project development. Can this player become a reliable shooter? Free throws give you a clue.

The Role of Shot Tracking Technology

Modern NBA teams use advanced camera systems. They track everything.

Shot speed. Arc. Entry angle. Release time. All measured precisely.

These systems identify mechanical issues. Maybe your shot is too flat. Or your release is slow.

Teams show players the data. Visual proof helps them improve. You can see exactly what needs fixing.

This tech also measures defensive pressure. How close was the defender? Hand in your face? Wide open?

Teams quantify shot difficulty. They know which makes are impressive and which should be automatic.

How Teams Project Improvement

Not every player enters the league as a great shooter. Teams bet on development.

They look at shooting progression. Did you improve each year in college? That shows work ethic and adaptability.

Mechanics matter. Clean, repeatable form is easier to refine than rebuilding from scratch.

Confidence plays a role too. Some players are scared to shoot. Others never hesitate. Mental approach affects results.

Teams have shooting coaches who work with players daily. They believe they can improve most shooters by a few percentage points.

That improvement is massive. Going from 33% to 36% from three changes your value completely.

Real Examples from NBA Teams

Look at the Warriors’ dynasty. They revolutionized shooter evaluation.

Steph Curry and Klay Thompson weren’t just good shooters. They shot high volume on tough attempts and stayed efficient.

The Warriors surrounded them with role players who could shoot too. Everyone on the floor was a threat. Defenses couldn’t help off anyone.

Spacing became suffocating. Driving lanes opened up. Easy buckets followed.

The Rockets under Daryl Morey took it further. They eliminated midrange shots almost entirely. Threes or layups. Nothing else.

People mocked it. But the math worked. They created one of the most efficient offenses in NBA history.

What This Means for Fantasy Basketball

If you play fantasy, understanding shooter evaluation helps.

Don’t just grab the guy with the highest FG%. Look at their shot profile.

A player taking lots of threes might have a lower FG% but scores more points. That’s who you want.

Check their attempts per game. High volume on good efficiency wins fantasy leagues.

Also watch for trends. Is someone’s three-point attempt rate increasing? Teams might be featuring them more. That’s valuable.

Common Mistakes in Shooter Evaluation

Casual fans make these errors all the time.

Overvaluing FG%. We covered this. It’s outdated. Adjust for shot value.

Ignoring volume. A player who takes two shots per game tells you nothing. Sample size matters.

Recency bias. One hot week doesn’t make someone a great shooter. Look at full seasons.

Forgetting context. Stats without situation are meaningless. Who, when, and where matter.

Teams avoid these mistakes. They use comprehensive data and watch film constantly.

The Future of Shooter Evaluation

Technology keeps improving. Teams find new ways to measure shooting.

Wearable sensors track fatigue and recovery. Tired players shoot worse. Teams manage minutes better now.

Machine learning models predict shooting performance. They find patterns humans miss.

Biomechanics analysis gets deeper. Teams study muscle activation and joint angles. Optimization reaches new levels.

The competitive advantage goes to teams using every tool available. Data-driven decisions beat gut feelings.

How You Can Apply This

You don’t need NBA resources to evaluate shooters better.

Watch where players take shots from. Are they hunting good looks or settling for bad ones?

Check eFG% instead of just FG%. It’s publicly available. Gives you a clearer picture.

Pay attention to volume and consistency. One game means nothing. Track trends over weeks and months.

Compare players in similar roles. Spot-up shooters versus shot creators. Context matters.

Understanding how NBA teams think makes you a smarter basketball fan. You’ll notice things others miss.

Final Thoughts

NBA teams don’t evaluate shooters the way fans do. They go way beyond basic percentages.

Shot value matters. Volume matters. Context matters. Quality of looks matters.

They use advanced stats, video breakdown, tracking technology, and years of experience.

The next time someone tells you a player is shooting poorly, ask which shots they’re taking. Check the efficiency metrics. Look at the full picture.

That’s how the pros do it. That’s how you should think about it too.

Want to start evaluating shooters like NBA teams do? Begin with understanding effective shooting metrics and build from there.

FAQs

What’s the difference between FG% and eFG%?

FG% treats all shots equally. eFG% weighs three-pointers correctly since they’re worth more points. A player making 40% of threes has a 60% eFG%, showing their true efficiency.

Why do NBA teams avoid midrange shots?

Midrange shots are inefficient. They’re not close enough to be high percentage like layups. And they’re not worth three points. Teams prefer threes or shots at the rim.

How many three-point attempts does a player need to be considered high volume?

Around 6-8 attempts per game is high volume. Elite shooters like Steph Curry take 10-12 per game. Anything under 3-4 attempts is low volume.

Can poor shooters improve significantly?

Yes, with good coaching and practice. Most players can improve by 2-4 percentage points. Brook Lopez went from non-shooter to reliable three-point threat through development.

What’s considered a good eFG% in the NBA?

League average is around 53-54%. Anything above 55% is good. Above 58% is elite. The best offensive players often exceed 60%.

Do NBA teams care about two-point percentage?

They break it down further. Shots at the rim versus midrange. At-rim efficiency matters a lot. Midrange percentage matters less unless you’re a specialist.

How do teams evaluate catch-and-shoot versus off-dribble shooting?

Separately. Catch-and-shoot is easier and more efficient. Off-dribble shooting is harder but more valuable because you create your own shot. Teams want both skills.

Why is corner three percentage higher than above-the-break?

Shorter distance. The corner three is about 22 feet. Above the break is 23-24 feet. Plus corner shooters often get better looks from drive-and-kick passes.